cSupply Gap Widens in Forex Market

The naira depreciated against the US dollar at all the foreign exchange market segments last week as dollar liquidity remained tight at the interbank market.
On the interbank market, the naira fell against the greenback by N13.18 to close at N321.16 to a dollar last Friday, as against the N307.98 to a dollar it attained the preceding Friday, amid strain in dollar supply as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) did not intervene in the market. The naira even fell as low as N330/$1 during the week.

Meanwhile, the CBN settled N962.23million in matured 1-month futures contract, being total settlement amount to its banking counterparties at N279/USD last Wednesday.
The expired contract, according to analysts at Cowry Asset Management Limited, was replaced by a new one year contract, Naira-Dollar JUL 19 2017, with a total notional amount on offer of $1 billion at N250/$1.

Forex traders were said to have executed 51 deals worth $189.37million between last Monday and Thursday.
On the other hand, the naira also depreciated at the Bureaux De Change (BDC) and the parallel market arms of the market by 1.37 per cent and 0.80 per cent to N370/$1 and N378/$1 respectively as unmet dollar demand continued to spill into the alternative market segments.
“We are worried that the increasing gap between the interbank market rate and the parallel market rates may create arbitrage and round tripping opportunities. In the current week, we expect sustained pressure on the naira as the greenback remains in short supply,” Cowry Asset Management Limited stated in a report.

The CBN last Tuesday raised the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), otherwise known as interest rate, by 200 basis points to 14 per cent from 12 per cent. It had also assured Nigerians of the stability of the banking sector, saying whilst it was poised to deal ruthlessly with any misdemeanour and malpractice, the recent removal of some banks chiefs was not a sign of distress.
The central bank also left the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) and Liquidity Ratio (LR) unchanged at 22.50 per cent and 30 per cent respectively as well as retained the Asymmetric Window at +200 and -500 basis points around the MPR.

CBN Governor, Godwin Emefiele, said five members voted to raise the MPR while three others voted to retain the rate at 12 per cent.
The governor, who admitted the difficulty among members in arriving at a decision over the MPR said it eventually settled for a hike given that the CBN “lacked the instruments required to directly jumpstart growth, and being mindful not to calibrate its instruments in such a manner as to undermine its primary mandate and financial system stability, in assessment of the relevant issues.”
Emefiele further explained that the committee had considered the high inflationary trend which has culminated into negative real interest rates in the economy, a condition which according to him discouraged savings. He added that the negative real interest rates did not support the recent flexible foreign exchange market as foreign investors attitude had remained.

To analysts at CSL Stockbrokers Limited, the MPC decision last week was driven, to a large extent, by a desire to move market interest rates higher, in a bid to attract foreign portfolio flows to the fixed income market in order to improve the supply of foreign exchange.  They revealed that since the MPC meeting, yields have moved higher still with FMDQ quoting the secondary market yields for 12-month instruments at 24 per cent on July 27 with 6-month instruments at 17.9 per cent00.
“Indeed, foreign portfolio investors will likely be reluctant to enter the market if they believe that there is further downside for the currency ahead.  The only impediment now for foreign bond investors, we believe, might be concerns about liquidity on the forex market.
“In other words, if they bring money in now, will they be able to buy dollars to exit the market when they wish to do so? Again, we believe that recent depreciation has taken the market closer to a level where suppliers of dollars will be more willing to sell and therefore, we believe that interbank liquidity should start to improve,” CSL Stockbrokers Limited added.
Also, the Chief Economist for Africa at Standard Chartered Bank, Razia Khan, noted that given the cost-push nature of inflation in Nigeria, which largely stems from the shortage of FX, the MPC decision was the right thing.

“It demonstrates a commitment to FX liberalisation, which alone will undo some of the bottlenecks that have contributed to inflation.  While the CBN framed its internal debate as choosing between growth and inflation, we believe there is no meaningful long-term trade off.  Establishing more credible policy  and attracting greater inflows is about as pro-growth as policy can be, given the challenges currently facing the Nigerian economy.  The tightening was an important step in re-establishing the credibility of monetary policy in Nigeria, and should allow for a gradual recovery in FX inflows,” she added.
Commenting on the decision to keep the CRR unchanged at 22.5 per cent, the economist also noted that given weak oil prices and output, she does not see excessive liquidity growth in the Nigerian economy.

“There’s no immediate rationale for a much higher CRR, not least because a more market-determined, inevitably higher USD- NGN rate will keep the spotlight on bank NPLs and capital adequacy ratios.  Any further rise in the CRR would only have added pressure to the banking system, with little effect on alleviating the FX shortage.
“In all, we think this was a good outcome to the MPC meeting.  As Nigeria embarks upon the path of reform (FX liberalisation, fuel price deregulation, transparency initiatives, efforts to boost revenue mobilisation, power sector reforms), all with a view to easing the economy’s transition to lower oil prices, and creating the foundation for more sound long-term growth, we think that today’s MPC decision represented an important initial step in the right direction,
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Currency-predicting ETFs lag behind international stock funds

Algorithms are proving to be poor at timing currency markets, if a group of new exchange-traded funds is any indication.

In January, ETF-industry leaders BlackRock Inc's iShares unit and WisdomTree Investments Inc both launched slates of international stock funds that are inconsistently hedged against currency moves, based on when and how their algorithms tell them to hedge.

So far this year, of the seven funds in both groups, only one is performing better than comparable funds that are unhedged. Three of the seven also lagged comparable funds that were fully hedged against currency moves.

The funds - iShares' "Adaptive Currency Hedged" ETFs and WisdomTree's "Dynamic Currency Hedged" funds - attempt to protect U.S. investors from losing money on winning international stocks when they collect their foreign profits in pricier U.S. dollars.

Using algorithms to predict the currency's direction, the index funds choose when to "hedge," buying contracts that fix their exchange rate and protecting investors' winnings if a foreign currency falls.

But their predictive models - reset only once a month - may have been caught short by Britain's June 23 "Brexit" vote to leave the European Union, which was followed by an immediate sharp decline in the pound and rally in the yen.

The funds need more time to demonstrate their abilities, said iShares product consultant Dorothy Lariviere. In pre-launch testing, the Adaptive indexes beat a portfolio split evenly between a fully hedged and unhedged strategy, she said.

WisdomTree research director Jeremy Schwartz said he expects Dynamic funds, which he calls the future of international-stock investing, to beat their counterparts over the long term.

INSIDE THE BLACK BOX

Each fund company's algorithm is different and weighs multiple factors, but both hedge more when a currency they have exposure to has recently been depreciating, on the premise that the currency would continue on that path.

But betting on momentum could backfire when currency directions change. In June, for example, the dollar fell 6.7 percent against the yen while the iShares Adaptive Currency Hedged MSCI Japan ETF was 75 percent hedged in the opposite direction.

Adjusting hedges more frequently could raise transaction costs and "pick up a lot of false signals" from temporary currency fluctuations, said James Wood-Collins, chief executive of Record Currency Management Ltd, which helped WisdomTree create the Dynamic indexes.
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Foreign exchange market

Today, Forex trading has definitely become more intuitive and even more affordable to plain folks. Even newbies just getting their feet wet in FX trading and investing can actually kick-start their careers by capitalizing on never-ending innovative products and services leading to stunning and consistent profits at reduced risk.

 As the entire FX industry gets more and more mature, some of the best broker representing the entire industry keep on giving birth to revolutionizing products and services.  To be more specific, some of the best and most reputable FX brokers can boast their own services allowing anyone to benefit from FX trading over the long term, even without actual trading.

 For example, you can invest your savings in professional traders in order to capitalize on their trading activities along with them. All of that is capable within the scope of local PAMM services or some other similar services like that. The point is, you can get trading signals delivered by those pro traders right to your account in auto mode and still make money using those signals to your own benefit.

Benefiting From FX Trading Signals

Some of the most respected FX brokers have already taken this to a whole new level by coming up with various innovative solutions making it possible to let the system copy successful traders for you without your participation. The thing, if you want to copy those trades manually, you still have to open, maintain, and close those trades on your own. Frankly speaking, this may require a certain degree of skill and expertise in handling the software and knowing the trading fundamentals, which is something few investors actually prefer. With auto-copying, you don’t have to have that kind of skills and expertise, maybe apart from some fundamentals of using the very software, which is something you can learn in a matter of hours. The point is, you can get yourself up and running in almost no time.

At the same time, this feature allows you to save a lot of your precious time since you don’t have to wait for hours just to make a timely entry according to another signal. Basically, all you really have to do is register with one of the FX brokers offering auto-copying feature, open an account, choose one or several master accounts (also known as signal providers) according to your risk tolerance and other preferences, enable the auto-copy feature and that’s it! Now you are ready to get started! Those master traders and the software will do the rest for you, leaving you with the option to supervise and stay in control of the situation from time to time while being able to disable certain signals on demand at any time you want. This is a huge timesaver! This is also a great moneymaker if you are investing with the right company partnering with professional traders who deliver trading signals of exceptional quality.

To make it simple to grasp, if you copy the signals in auto mode, you can really have little or even zero experience in anything that relates to trading or investing and still enjoy stunning and consistent results, which come at reduced cost and relatively low risk. Once again, all of that is possible only with respected and honest brokers capable of delivering such winning signals on a regular basis.
Keep in mind that the conditions of having such signals copied to your account may very from broker to broker. With some of them, you are required to deposit a decent amount of money to be eligible for this kind of service. At the same time, there are brokers that may well neglect the importance of backing their services technically to prevent various breakdowns leading to losses and bad user experience. That’s why it is vital to take into consideration only the services with some of the best companies in the Forex industry.

With that being said, NordFX is one of such companies you can fully trust. To be honest with you, this is probably one of the best alternatives when it comes to trading signals, especially if to take into account the fact that NordFX is the World’s Best Forex Broker 2015 (Masterforex-V Expo) as well as the Best Broker for Auto-Copying 2015. These awards are not a random instance of luck. This is the result of the company’s consistency and professionalism over the years.

State Street forex settlement is notch in belt for Madoff whistleblower

The U.S. government finally heard Madoff whistleblower Harry Markopolos loud and clear.

Markopolos, and his whistle-blower group Associates Against FX Insider Trading, were key players in a $530 million settlement announced Wednesday against State Street Bank and Trust Company for allegedly cheating several government bodies on the pricing of their foreign exchange transactions. Markopolos declined to comment.

In a joint announcement on Wednesday the DOJ, SEC, and DOL said that State Street STT, +9.31%   will pay $382.4 million, including $155 million to the Department of Justice, $167.4 million to the SEC and at least $60 million to pension plan clients to settle allegations that it deceived some securities custody clients on when it priced foreign currency exchange transactions. The alleged misconduct took place from 1998 to 2009.

The bank also agreed to pay $147.6 million to settle private class action lawsuits filed by bank customers alleging similar misconduct, the Justice Department said.

Markopolos’ group filed its largest forex case originally in California, on behalf of the California Public Employees’ Retirement System and the California State Teachers’ Retirement System. That suit was settled last November. Additional cases filed via False Claims Act whistleblower statutes in Virginia, Florida, New York State and Washington state have also already settled. Markopolos and his group have already been paid for their whistleblower efforts based on those settlements.

The payouts conclude almost all of the investigations State Street has faced since 2009, when Markopolos filed the California lawsuit. Associates Against FX Insider Trading and Markopolos are not named in the latest State Street settlement announcements, but Markopolos has previously acknowledged his involvement in the case.

State Street safeguards clients’ securities as part of its custody business and offers indirect foreign currency exchange trading when clients buy and sell foreign currencies as needed to settle transactions, such as interest and principal payments from foreign bond issuers.

State Street admitted in its settlement with the DOJ that it generally did not price FX transactions at prevailing interbank market rates, contrary to what it told certain custody clients. State Street admitted that FX transactions were marked-up or marked-down from the prevailing interbank rate.

State Street allegedly misrepresented to custody clients that it provided “best execution” on FX transactions, that it guaranteed the most competitive rates available on FX transactions and that it priced FX transactions based on a variety of factors. Instead prices were largely driven by hidden mark-ups that maximized State Street’s profits.

Markopolos has also filed a whistleblower claim in the SEC case. It may be at least two more years before that payout occurs based on similar cases.

See also: Whistleblower award for NYSE fine goes to HFT critic

A State Street Bank spokeswoman said that the negotiated settlement agreements are expected to resolve, subject to the courts’ final approval, the pending litigation and regulatory matters in the United States related to its indirect foreign exchange business.

“Each agreement depends upon certification, for settlement purposes, of a class of State Street’s custody customers that executed indirect foreign exchange transactions with State Street between 1998 and 2009, and final approval by the United States District Court for the District of Massachusetts of the settlement agreement between State Street and the class,” she said. “Matters of this nature can drain both time and resources; so where possible and appropriate we feel it is in our and our clients’ best interests to pursue settlements. Our previously established reserve will be sufficient to cover all costs associated with these agreements.”

Since the lawsuits were filed the foreign exchange markets have gone from an opaque, manual quote market to a fully electronic market where real-time quotes and historical information is available to institutional and retail customers. Every major bank that acts as a forex dealer has its own quoting and execution platform and multi-dealer platforms have sprung up that offer competitive quoting on worldwide currencies.

Checking on rates in advance or verifying after the fact was very difficult to do in the past. Calling around for competitive rates opened a customer up to potential front-running of the trade by other dealers.

He and other whistle-blowers filed a similar case against Bank of New York Mellon Corp. BK, +0.83%   in Massachusetts. A lawsuit filed on behalf of the New York City pension funds by New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman in 2011 against Bank of New York Mellon Corp for allegedly shortchanging the funds in foreign currency exchange transactions is still pending.

The New York City BONY Mellon suit is the last open forex case for the Markopolos group.

The SEC has already fined Bank of New York Mellon $30 million in June for misleading certain of its custodial clients about pricing when executing standing instructions for foreign currency transactions.

Markopolos spent years on Bernie Madoff’s trail and tried to warn regulators about the fraud, but he was largely ignored. It’s a frustrating experience he documented in his book, No One Would Listen: A True Financial Thriller.
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Best Profitable Forex Signals Provider

Forex signals provide indications as to when traders can buy positions and when they can sell them with the least amount of risk. It is an alert system and it keeps traders updated on the direction of movement of the currency market. In addition to indicating as to when to open and close a trade, forex signals helps to reduce the stress associated with forex trading. This is especially true in the case of traders who don’t have the time to keep monitoring the market and take positions because of their other engagements. Actually, forex signals enables even novice traders to succeed in forex trading. The signals are sent to traders by forex signals providers through SMS, email and website or the trading platform.

The ability to succeed in forex trading can be attributed to the fact that timings as regards buying and selling of positions are determined by professionals or experts in the field. They watch the markets continuously and provide signals based on Fundamental and Technical analysis and after doing a great deal of research on Major Indicators. Robots are also used for generating signals. Forex trading based on signals may be executed manually or automatically. In the case of a manual system, a trader receives signals from the service provider and he/she executes the buy/sell order. In the case of an automated trading system, buy/sell orders are automatically executed as and when the signals are delivered.

Though forex trading using signals helps to reduces stress and enhance profits, it is a challenging task to choose the best profitable forex signals provider. This is because there are a large number of signals providers out there in the market and all of them do not provide the same kind of reliable service. The aim of this post is to provide traders with some information as to how they can choose the best profitable forex signals provider to work with.

How to Choose Best Profitable Forex Signals Provider

Choosing a wrong signals provider can result in a great deal of loss to traders. Therefore, traders should choose one that provides accurate, reliable and authentic services. It is a good to idea to observe the performance of some of the forex signal providers and even take trial memberships before deciding to purchase their package. Some forex signals providers guarantee some amount of profits, but it is important to verify their physical addresses and phone numbers before deciding to work with them.

There are free and paid forex signals providers. The difference between free and paid services boils down to accuracy and reliability. Traders need to verify the following important factors before subscribing for a forex signals service:

The best profitable forex signals providers indicate the entry point clearly and also provide a method by which traders can determine as to how the trade is likely to go. Quality signals providers give clear indications as to where the signals apply, what market types and currency they are good for and to what trading sessions they apply. They also provide exclusions and warnings.

Traders must also make sure that the signals provider has sufficient trading history and check to ensure that the signals apply and provide consistent results. It is also important to ascertain the success rate committed by the signals provider.

Further, traders should calculate the maximum loss incurred when using signals provided by the service provider. If historic data shows that the loss suffered is not more than 10 percent of the deposit, it is safe to work with this signals provider. If the historic data shows that the loss incurred is in the range of 20 percent, or even 30 percent, traders may be able to still make profits, but they will have to adopt a different money management policy and manage accordingly.

The best and profitable forex signals providers cover multiple situations on the currency market such as the upward, downward and sideward or flat trends. Further, they provide signals for all major currencies such as USD, EUR and GBP when the market is open and when specific trading conditions prevail with explicit details.

Avoid signals providers who promise unrealistic profits. The best and profitable forex signals providers do not promise that traders would make huge profits if they use signals provided by them. It is, therefore, a good idea to avoid signals providers that promise +5 pips or +7 pips profit from each trade. Such promises are unrealistic because of spread offered by forex brokers and slippage.

Many forex signals providers send signals in a random manner and indiscriminately without following any clear methodology. Such signals may not be well analyzed and are, therefore, not very reliable. These types of signals are provided by service providers to take away traders money. They don’t operate their business with the clients’ benefits in mind.

It is important to ascertain the times when the signals provider would send messages. Traders should know in advance when they could expect signals from the provider so that they could be prepared to enter trades.

When the market is on, the best profitable forex signals providers update the status of the trade as they would be concerned about the market situation. This is because economic data and news move the forex market. Updates help traders to manage their running trades suitably.

Finally, traders shuld also look at the monthly commitments in terms of number of signals offered by the signals provider. It is also important to ascertain as to whether the provider fulfils the commitment prior to deciding to subscribe to their service.

Summarizing, using the best and profitable forex signals is a great way to do forex trading. This helps traders to reduce the mystery as well as the risk associated with currency trading and generate profits in a reasonable amount of time, especially for traders who are doing other jobs as well. However, they should keep in mind the fact that no signals provider and no system can ever guarantee 100 percent results under all circumstances. Traders would incur losses, but they would succeed in more number of trades if they use signals.

Nigeria: Attracting Foreign Investors to the Forex Market

Feelers from last week's foreign investment road-show by Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) indicated that Nigeria's finances and the economy as a whole may be headed to its worst external sector positions.

The foreign investors have told the apex bank that they are not yet ready to return to Nigeria even though the local currency has been massively devalued in line with their demands. The implication is that Nigeria may have burnt its candle from both ends.

About five issues stick out in the discord between Nigeria's monetary authorities and the foreign investment communities. They include: transparency in the currency market, liquidity of the market, the place of the parallel market, the external reserves and the political will for liberalisation. In spite of CBN's modest efforts, the investor communities feel there are still grey areas in the new forex regime that portray the exchange rate dynamics as if they are not real. Probably this is the core of all other issues.

We would like to see CBN demonstrate full transparency in the forex market, not because of the foreign investors' demands but because that is a basic requirement for any near-perfect, free enterprise market to function optimally. Even local investors would demand such, and we dare say that if anything is fishy in the implementation of the new forex regime, Nigerian financial system operators would decode such and take advantage of it to the detriment of the economy.
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Attracting foreign investors to the forex market

Feelers from last week’s foreign investment road-show by Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) indicated that Nigeria’s finances and the economy as a whole may be headed to its worst external sector positions. The foreign investors have told the apex bank that they are not yet ready to return to Nigeria even though the local currency has been massively devalued in line with their demands. The implication is that Nigeria may have burnt its candle from both ends.

 About five issues stick out in the discord between Nigeria’s monetary authorities and the foreign investment communities. They include: transparency in the currency market, liquidity of the market, the place of the parallel market, the external reserves and the political will for liberalisation.  In spite of CBN’s modest efforts, the investor communities feel there are still grey areas in the new forex regime that portray the exchange rate dynamics as if they are not real.

Probably this is the core of all other issues. We would like to see CBN demonstrate full transparency in the forex market, not because of the foreign investors’ demands but because that is a basic requirement for any near-perfect, free enterprise market to function optimally. Even local investors would demand such, and we dare say that if anything is fishy in the implementation of the new forex regime, Nigerian financial system operators would decode such and take advantage of it to the detriment of the economy.

We expect the forex market to exhibit the nature of true markets which should respond to environmental dynamics. For instance, after “Brexit”, currency markets all over the world (including Nigeria’s own black market) reacted but the official market did not. The fact that the parallel market rate is still far higher indicates that something is wrong with the official market. This brings up the issue of foreign investors’ using the parallel market as their reference benchmark rate to the discomfort of the CBN. As it is today in Nigeria, most businesses price their goods at the parallel market rate, and so do the foreign investors. Also critical is the issue of liquidity supply.

Up till date, the CBN remains the sole supplier of foreign exchange to the market. This does not reassure foreign investors that if they get involved at this stage their investments will be safe. Therefore, avenues for the supply of forex must be diversified. In addition to this, the Federal Government and the CBN must reassure both local and foreign investors that Nigeria is serious about allowing the principles of free enterprise to rule the forex market. Otherwise, we will be left to carry this alone, and our foreign exchange market woes will linger for longer.
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Key benchmarks hover near flat line

Key benchmark indices trimmed losses in mid-morning trade. At 11:16 IST, the barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, was down 12.37 points or 0.04% at 27,698.15. The Nifty 50 index was currently down 1.20 points or 0.01% at 8,508.90. The Sensex fell 64.31 points, or 0.23% at the day's low of 27,646.21 in mid-morning trade, its lowest level since 19 July 2016. The index rose 53.67 points, or 0.19% at the day's high of 27,764.19 at the onset of trading session. The Nifty fell 20.30 points, or 0.24% at the day's low of 8,489.80 in early trade, its lowest level since 19 July 2016. The index rose 15.30 points, or 0.18% at the day's high of 8,525.40 at the onset of trading session.

The market breadth indicating the overall health of the market was positive. On BSE, 1,285 shares rose and 908 shares fell. A total of 169 shares were unchanged. The BSE Mid-Cap index was currently up 0.6%. The BSE Small-Cap index was currently up 0.55%. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.


In overseas stocks markets, Japanese stocks led losses for Asian equities after Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda dashed hopes for so-called helicopter money or ultra-aggressive easing measures. The Nikkei 225 was currently off 1.32%. According to a media interview, recorded mid-June but broadcast yesterday, 21 July 2016, Kuroda ruled out the idea of using helicopter money -- or directly underwriting the budget deficit -- to combat deflation. The BOJ is scheduled to review monetary policy at a two-day meeting on 28-29 July 2016. US stocks edged lower yesterday, 21 July 2016, with the Dow Industrial Average snapping a nine-day string of gains, as a hot equity market cooled ahead of key central-bank meetings across the globe.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) held rates unchanged after a monetary policy review yesterday, 21 July 2016, and emphasized that it intends to keep rates at current or lower levels for an extended period and that its program of monthly bond buys would run until at least March 2017, and possibly beyond.

Stocks of companies involved in oil exploration & production activities witnessed mixed trend. ONGC (down 0.11%) and Oil India (down 0.04%), edged lower. Reliance Industries was up 0.45%.

In the global commodities markets, Brent futures for September settlement were currently up 8 cents at $46.28 a barrel. The contract had fallen 97 cents or 2.06% to settle at $46.20 a barrel during the previous trading session.

Cairn India rose 2.58% to Rs 181.15 after the company reported a surge in bottom line on sequential basis in Q1 June 2016. Cairn India's normalised net profit jumped 88% to Rs 360 crore on 10% rise in net revenue to Rs 1885 crore in Q1 June 2016 over Q4 March 2016. Revenue increased on account of a significant rise in Brent crude prices on sequential basis. Net profit rose sequentially driven by higher EBITDA but was partly offset by higher depreciation, depletion and amortization (DD&A) charges and forex losses.

Mr Sudhir Mathur, CFO and acting CEO of Cairn India said that the company delivered a resilient performance, registering 88% increase in profit for the quarter on sequential basis. The company has taken significant measures to drive cost efficiency and rationalize capital investment, resulting in free cash generation in a lower-for-longer oil price environment.

Cairn India said that it will remain focused on monetizing its Rajasthan resource base in FY 2017. An estimated net capex spend of $100 million is proposed for FY 2017, 20% of which is for exploration while balance will be invested primarily to develop RDG Gas and for completion activities of Mangala EOR. The aim will be to maintain production from Rajasthan asset at FY 2016 level. Efforts are underway to further improve the economics of key projects that includes Bhagyam & Aishwariya EOR, Barmer Hill and Satellite fields, at low oil price and invest in their pre-development activities to ensure project readiness for development with grant of extension of PSC. The company maintains its flexibility to raise capital investment as oil prices improve and aims to generate a healthy cash flow post capex so as to retain the ability to pay dividends.

Shares of most public sector oil marketing companies (PSU OMCs) declined. BPCL (down 0.98%) and HPCL (down 0.19%), edged lower. Indian Oil Corporation was up 0.13%.

Aviation stocks edged higher after crude oil prices declined overnight. Jet Airways India (up 1.43%), SpiceJet (up 1.28%) and InterGlobe Aviation (up 1.23%) edged higher. Lower crude oil prices benefit aviation firms as jet fuel prices, which typically constitute about 50% of airlines' operating costs, are directly linked to international crude oil prices.

Metal shares were mixed. JSW Steel (down 0.8%), Hindustan Copper (down 0.72%), Hindalco Industries (down 0.71%), Tata Steel (down 0.68%), Bhushan Steel (down 0.48%) and Steel Authority of India (down 0.11%), edged lower. Hindustan Zinc (up 0.54%), Jindal Steel & Power (up 0.81%), NMDC (up 1.15%), National Aluminium Company (up 1.47%) and Vedanta (up 2%), edged higher.

Meanwhile, copper price edged lower in the global commodities markets. High Grade Copper for September 2016 delivery was currently down 0.44% at $2.2485 per pound on the COMEX.
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Oil down 2 percent as record U.S. stockpiles heighten glut worry

Oil prices fell 2 percent on Thursday, as the market took a closer look at U.S. government data that showed growing inventories of gasoline and other oil products pushed total petroleum supplies in the No. 1 oil consumer to record highs.

In the previous session, Brent and U.S. crude futures rose by up to 1 percent after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said crude inventories dropped 2.3 million barrels last week, versus forecasts for a 2.1 million-barrel decline. It was the ninth straight weekly draw.

Still, U.S. crude inventories are at a historically high 519.5 million barrels for this time of year, the EIA said. Also, total U.S. crude and oil product stocks rose 2.62 million barrels to an all-time high of 2.08 billion barrels as gasoline stocks posted a surprise build of 911,000 barrels during summer driving season.

Adding to that, market intelligence firm Genscape reported a build of 725,176 barrels for the week to July 19 at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery point for U.S. crude futures, traders said.

"The market is technically weak, inventories are still high for summer, maintenance season is not far off and we have floating barrels at sea to top it all," said Pete Donovan, broker at Liquidity Energy in New York.

Brent crude LCOc1 closed 97 cents, or 2.1 percent, lower at $46.20 a barrel.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled down $1, or 2.2 percent, at $44.75.

ABN AMRO senior energy economist Hans van Cleef said Brent could slip toward the $42-$43 level. "Near-term, there are still some downside risks."

Phil Davis, trader at PSW Investments in California, pointed to the 4.2 million-barrel build of "other oils" cited by the EIA, which eclipsed the gasoline build.

Those other oils include special gas for smaller airplanes and less-known industrial oils, which refiners typically crank out when there was too much gasoline and distillate supply, Davis said.

"These other oils don't get as much attention as the headline numbers put out by the EIA and have been a clever and convenient way to hide weak product demand," he said.

Lending some fundamental support to crude, exports of Nigeria's largest crude oil stream, Qua Iboe, will remain under force majeure for at least one month as operator Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N) fixes a pipeline, sources said.

Gold sinks to 3-week low amid renewed Fed rate hike bets

Gold prices extended overnight losses in North American trade on Wednesday, sinking to a three-week low amid renewed expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike later this year.
Gold for August delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by as much as 1.2% to touch a session low of $1,316.00 a troy ounce, a level not seen since June 30. It last stood at $1,318.70 by 12:38GMT, or 8:38AM ET, down $13.60, or 1.02%.

A recent string of upbeat economic reports, including June housing starts, retail sales, ISM manufacturing and employment were all much better than expected, suggesting that economic growth regained speed in the second quarter.
The bullish data could allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates later this year, but much will depend on policymakers' assessment of the impact on the U.S. economy of Britain's June 23 vote to leave the European Union.

Interest rate futures are currently pricing in a 47% chance of a rate hike by December, compared with less than 20% a week ago and up from 9% at the start of this month.
Gold is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates. A gradual path to higher rates is seen as less of a threat to gold prices than a swift series of increases.
The dollar climbed to a fresh four-month high early on Wednesday, boosted by Fed rate hike hopes.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.15% at 97.22, up from levels of around 96.00 just a week ago and the most since March 10.

A stronger U.S. dollar usually weighs on gold, as it dampens the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies.
The yellow metal remained supported amid speculation central banks in Europe and Asia will step up monetary stimulus in the next few months to counteract the negative economic shock from the Brexit vote.

Expectations of monetary stimulus tend to benefit gold, as the metal is seen as a safe store of value and inflation hedge.
The precious metal is up almost 25% for the year to date, boosted by concerns over global growth and as market players pushed back expectations for the next U.S. rate hike.
Also on the Comex, silver futures for September delivery slumped 42.5 cents, or 2.12%, to trade at $19.58 a troy ounce during morning hours in New York, while copper futures dropped 2.9 cents, or 1.28%, to $2.234 a pound.
Market Swing
Gold signals 
Comex signals

METALS-London copper treads water, waits for directional cue

London copper was little changed on Tuesday, as the dollar held steady and markets awaited fresh signals for direction.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange traded down 0.1 percent to $4,935 a tonne by 0042 GMT, after closing the previous session up 0.4 percent even as prices dipped to the lowest in four sessions at $4,852.25.
* Shanghai Futures Exchange copper edged up 0.3 percent to 38,330 yuan ($5,720) a tonne in the overnight session.
* ShFE nickel rallied 2.5 percent overnight, in line with LME nickel’s Monday gains on the back of a drop in supply from Philippines. LME nickel traded flat on Tuesday.
* Home price rises in China slowed in June for a second straight month, adding to fears that a construction-led rebound in the economy may not be sustainable.
* Germany’s economy will rebound in the coming months after a weak second quarter and any impact from Britain’s decision to leave the European Union in the near future could be limited, the Bundesbank said in a monthly report on Monday.
* Rio Tinto on Tuesday maintained its full-year iron ore shipment guidance from its Australian mines of roughly 330 million tonnes, subject to weather conditions.
* As Congo’s mining heartland endures mass layoffs at big mines caused by low commodity prices, small-scale mining is helping to fill the deficit.
* For the top stories in metals and other news, click or

MARKETS NEWS

* U.S. stock prices rose on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 posting record closes amid upbeat company earnings, while oil fell on worries about growing supply and traders brushing off a failed coup in Turkey.
Market Swing
Comex signals
Gold signals

Comex Gold Futures (GC) Technical Analysis

August Comex Gold futures are trading steady-to-higher shortly before the U.S. opening. The market has been reactive lately and investors seem to be waiting for direction from the equity markets and the U.S. Dollar before making their next major decision.

Gold could become range bound or continue to drift lower over the near-term if the market continues to lose its safe-haven appeal. Traders have been selling gold because of the increasing easing of risk aversion. The current price action suggests that central banks worldwide have to include more stimulus packages in their monetary policies, leading to risk asset appreciation.
Current data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset waned with speculators cutting their record bullish bets for the first time in five weeks.
Gold traders are also worried that the Fed could raise interest rates before the end of the year, given the robust jobs report earlier in the month and Friday’s much-better-than-expected U.S. Retail Sales figures.

Technically, the main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has been to the downside since July 6.
The main range is $1252.80 to $1377.50. Its retracement zone is $1315.20 to $1300.40. This is the primary downside target. Since the main trend is up, we could see a technical bounce on the first test of this zone if buyers decide to come in to defend the trend. An uptrending angle passes through this zone today at $1312.80, making it a valid downside target also.

Based on Friday’s close at $1327.40 and the early price action, the direction of the market today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending angle at $1333.50.
A sustained move over $1333.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could create enough upside momentum to challenge the downtrending angle at $1345.50. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the next target angle coming in at $1361.50.

A sustained move under $1333.50 will signal the presence of sellers. The daily chart indicates there is room to the downside so if there is enough momentum we could see a test of last week’s low at $1320.40, the 50% level $1315.20 and the uptrending angle at $1312.80.
The angle at $1312.80 is also the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next key target the Fibonacci level at $1300.40.
Watch the price action and read the order flow at $1333.50 today. Look for an upside bias to develop on a sustained move over this angle and a downside bias to develop if sellers successfully defend this angle.
Market swing
Comex signals
gold signals

Weekly Forex Technical Report for Prominent Currency Pairs

AUD/USD ( 4 HOURLY )

RECOMMENDATION: SELL

The primary trend of AUD/USD is bearish on charts and price is trading below the trend line in its 4 hourly chart. In 4 hourly chart the price is sustaining below 200 day SMA and taking resistance of 50 day SMA on the downside indicating downtrend of the pair. It is having an important resistance at the level of 0.7405 and support at the level of 0.7245. If it breaks its support level on the downside and sustains below it then we can expect it to show further bearish movement in the pair.

INDICATORS:-

MACD is sustaining in its negative territory indicating the bearish trend in the pair.
RSI is sustaining in its selling zone indicating the upcoming bearish trend in the pair.

STRATEGY: AUD/USD is looking bearish on charts for next few trading session. One can go for sell on higher level strategy for this pair for intra day to mid term positions in it.

EUR/USD ( DAILY )

RECOMMENDATION: SELL

SUMMARY:
The primary trend of EUR/USD is bearish on charts and price is trading below the trend line in its daily chart. In daily chart the price is sustaining above 200 day SMA and taking resistance of 50 day SMA on the downside indicating downtrend of the pair. It is having an important resistance at the level of 1.1375 and support at the level of 1.1280. If it breaks its support level on the downside and sustains below it then we can expect it to show further bearish movement in the pair.

INDICATORS:-
MACD is sustaining in its negative territory indicating the bearish trend in the pair.
RSI is sustaining in its selling zone indicating the upcoming bearish trend in the pair.
STRATEGY: EUR/USD is looking bearish on charts for next few trading session. One can go for sell on higher level strategy for this pair for intra day to mid term positions in it.
Market swing 
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forex signals

Energy Recap: Oil Rig Count Up Again

Every Friday, Seeking Alpha provides a roundup of insightful opinion and analysis articles in the energy sector.

In this edition, we highlight articles on Transocean and Blueknight Energy Partners, as well as ask for your take on what's happening in the energy sector.

If you'd like to contribute to the energy conversation on Seeking Alpha, you can leave a comment below or submit your own article.

Welcome to the latest edition of the Energy Recap. This week, we saw Atlas Resource Partners (NYSE:ARP) take a step toward Chapter 11 while Seventy Seven Energy (NYSE:SSE) said it's getting ready to exit bankruptcy.

Energy Articles of Note

"Underfollowed High-Dividend Energy Preferred Stock Yields 9% With Bond-Like Risk" By Value Digger

"Transocean (NYSE:RIG): Bond Pricing Signals Other Drillers Won't Follow" By Vladimir Zernov

"Bakken Update: Rig Counts Tell Us Little, As Horizontal Wells Have Changed How We Predict Future Production" By Michael Filloon

Energy Sector Bankruptcies for the Week Ended July 15, 2016

Here's a list of the most recent bankruptcy announcements in the energy sector:

- None this week.

However, we should note that late last Friday, C&J Energy Services (NYSE:CJES) announced that it "reached a restructuring support agreement with certain lenders ... and plans to begin a reorganization under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code on or before July 17."

Feel free to add any that we might have missed in the comments section below.

U.S. Oil Rig Count as of July 15, 2016

As per Baker Hughes, the number of active U.S. oil drilling rigs increased for the sixth time in seven weeks.

Comex signals

Comex news

Energy Index signals end of downturn

Strong gains in crude oil prices and improving investor sentiment toward the state’s publicly traded oil and natural gas companies held the most recent Oklahoma Energy Index steady, signaling the end is near for the economic downturn that has plagued the state’s defining industry for the past 17 months.

The Oklahoma Energy Index saw no change using data collected in May. The index of oil and natural gas industry activity stands at 153.9.

“The increase in oil prices and sixth week of inventory draws have helped stabilize this market in recent weeks,” said Chris Mostek, senior vice president of energy lending for Bank SNB.

“However, the recent natural gas price increases are a concern given the high storage levels.”

The average monthly crude oil spot price advanced nearly 15 percent from previous month levels.

Price momentum carried into June as spot prices continue to threaten a key $50 per barrel threshold.

Improving investor sentiment likewise carried the Oklahoma Energy Portfolio to a 7.5 percent gain for the month, marking a 39 percent gain from the trough established in February.

The weakest component of the index continues to be rig activity, as the industry employed five fewer rigs in May than in the month before.

“The underlying trend in the index is consistent with a developing bottom to this cycle, but significant concerns still exist,” said Dr. Russell Evans, executive director of the Steven C. Agee Economic Research and Policy Institute.
Market swing
comex signals
crude oil signals

Crude Oil Futures Tumble Nearly 4 Percent on Smaller-Than-Expected Inventory Draw

According to the U.S. Department of Energy, crude inventories fell 2.5 million barrels in the week to July 8, less than analysts’ expectations for a decrease of 3 million barrels.
Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, rose 4.1 million barrels, the largest build since the week ended January 9 and much more than expectations for a 256,000-barrel increase, the EIA said. Gasoline stocks rose unexpectedly by 1.2 million barrels, compared with forecasts for a 432,000 barrel drop.
August Comex Gold futures recovered after an earlier loss, driven higher by a weaker U.S. Dollar, profit-taking in the U.S. equity markets and accommodative monetary policies. The dollar traded lower against the Japanese Yen, Canadian Dollar and Euro, but managed to post gains against other majors like the Australian and New Zealand Dollars and the British Pound. However, as a trade-weighted basket of currencies, the September U.S. Dollar Index broke after it failed for a second day to breakout to the upside.
The USD/JPY posted a choppy, two-sided trade on Wednesday before traders decided to take it lower. Initially, it firmed after the opening, but lost ground after China released a mixed trade balance report. However, the Forex pair held on to losses after stocks began to break off their highs.
Lower demand for higher-risk assets put pressure on the AUD/USD and NZD/USD after several days of gains this week. Technical factors also contributed to the losses as several oscillators and indications reached overbought territory.
The short-covering rally driving the GBP/USD
GBP/USD (GBP/USD)
1.32260.0109(0.83%)
08:47:59 (GMT)
Start trading  No Clear Signal
Bid: 1.3224
Ask: 1.3228
Open: 1.3117
High: 1.3274
Low: 1.3105
 
 higher this week came to an end on Wednesday as investors took profits and squared positions ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England monetary policy decision. Earlier in the week, shorts covered aggressively following the announcement of a new U.K. prime minister. This brought some relief to investors because it eliminated a key political obstacle that had been created in late June when the U.K. voted to leave the European Union.
On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate steady at 0.50%, the same level it’s been at since last summer. In its decision, the central bank said, “The fundamentals remain in place for a pickup in growth” in the economy.
The Canadian economy “grew by 2.4 percent in the first quarter but is estimated to have contracted by 1 percent in the second quarter, pulled down by volatile trade flows, uneven consumer spending, and the Alberta wild fires.

Market swing

crude oil signals

comex signals

Asia markets extend rally as UK political chaos calms, Japan stimulus eyed

Asia markets advanced on Wednesday, extending a global rally that pushed major U.S. indexes to records amid expectations of further easing from Japan and the resolution of some concerns over the U.K. political jumble.

"After being faced with the prospect of a major slowdown in global activity in the wake of the Brexit vote, governments and central banks worldwide are now expected to do their utmost to reassure markets and provide stimulus," said Angus Nicholson, a market analyst at brokerage IG, adding that this expectation partly explained the global rally in equities.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 was up 1.2 percent, extending Monday and Tuesday's combined 6.5 percent rally, and the Topix added 1.51 percent, as stocks got a boost from a weaker yen amid expectations that a double-bazooka of fiscal and monetary easing was on the cards after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's coalition won a landslide victory in upper house elections over the weekend.

Abe pledged a fresh round of fiscal stimulus spending following his election victory and analysts broadly expect the Bank of Japan would again turn on the monetary policy spigots.
That helped to weaken the Japanese yen, with the dollar fetching 104.19 yen after trading near the 100 handle late last week; the currency pair was off an earlier high of 104.88.

The yen's relative weakness gave export stocks in Japan a boost, with shares of Toyota up 2.66 percent, Nissan higher by 2.4 percent and Toshiba adding 2.90 percent. Sony traded down 0.89 percent, after retracing earlier gains of more than 1 percent.

Australia's ASX 200 was up 0.47 percent in late-morning trade, boosted by gains in the energy, materials and financials subindexes.
Mining stocks in the country were mostly higher after iron ore prices rose more than 6 percent to $58.80 a tonne overnight. BHP Billiton was up 2.31 percent, while Fortescue added 5.76 percent and Rio Tinto was up 2.49 percent.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index was up 0.56 percent. Chinese mainland markets also traded in positive territory, with the Shanghai composite up 0.29 percent and the Shenzhen composite higher by 0.34 percent. In South Korea, the Kospi gained 0.6 percent.
Concerns over political anarchy in the U.K. eased on Tuesday as U.K. home Secretary Theresa May looked set to be installed as the new prime minister this week, after rival Andrea Leadsom dropped out of the contest, leaving May the only candidate. That eased concerns that the U.K. was rudderless in the wake of David Cameron's resignation as prime minister in the wake of the referendum vote to exit the European Union (EU).

"Risk sentiments are riding high on easing fears of brutal 'Brexit' fallout," Mizuho said in a note Wednesday. "Her promise of a successful 'Brexit' is inspiring hopes of a sensible compromise that will not unnecessarily dent the economy."
Market swing 
comex signals

What Gold, Silver, And Bitcoin Are Telling Us About Stock, Bonds, And Currencies

Summary

1- Gold and silver bull markets.

2- Bitcoin - a validation of weak fiat paper currencies.

3- Currencies all move lower.

4- Bonds - interest rates are not going up. They are going lower.

5- Stocks - it is a bad time to be overvalued.

2016 has been a year for trading rather than investing. Over the first six weeks of the year, the S&P500 dropped 11.5%. By the end of the first quarter, it was back up and closed at the end of March with a 0.77% gain. At the end of June, the critical equity index had posted a 2.69% gain on the year. Those who held their noses and bought the dip that took the market to lows on February 11 profited handsomely, so far.

So many retirement and investment accounts mirror the performance of the S&P 500 index and the index put in a respectable performance after the carnage seen during the first month and a half of this year. However, there are some ominous signals that the second half of the year could be difficult for equity markets. In fact, other markets could be telling us that dark clouds are gathering, and stocks could be in real trouble in the weeks and months ahead. It is an excellent time to take stock of those stock positions, in a couple of weeks your portfolio results for 2016 could look a lot different than they do today.

Gold and silver bull markets

Fear and uncertainty have gripped markets across all asset classes in 2016 increasing volatility. The action in precious metal markets has been a direct result of the volatile nature of the political and economic landscape around the world.

Early in the year, the gold market gave the first indication that something was underfoot. Gold rallied out of the gate in 2016 while many other commodity markets had yet to make significant multi-year lows.
As the weekly chart highlights, COMEX gold futures opened 2016 around the $1060 per ounce level. Last week gold traded to highs of over $1375 per ounce, the highest level since March 2014. The over 29% increase in the price of gold has been a sign that investors and traders have sought safe-haven assets for their capital.
Market Swing
Comex signals
Gold signals
Silver signals

NYMEX, Brent weaker in Asia as supply outlook weighs

Crude oil prices fell further in Asia on Monday with sentiment downbeat on supply after a rise last week in the U.S. rig count with mild inflation in China not immediately boosting the outlook for demand.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in August dropped 0.79% to $45.05 a barrel. On the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for September delivery fell 0.71% to $46.43 a barrel.
At the weekend, China reported that the pace of gains in the Consumer Price Index moderated further to 1.9% year-on-year in June because of mainly weaker gains in food prices and at the slowest pace since January, when the National Bureau of Statistics changed the weighting of the basket of goods that make up the index.
Food prices rose 4.6% year-on-year in June, down from a 5.9% increase in May and 7.4% jump in April. Pork prices, the biggest driver of consumer inflation in the past few months, rose by 30.1% year-on-year, down from 33.6% year-on-year in May.
The data suggests that China is in a sustained period of moderate inflation even as worries about deflation have dissipated, making it less likely that the People's Bank of China will resort to aggressive monetary easing to support the economy, but also more likely it will keep rates low.
Some support for crude was seen on comments by Saudi Arabia's energy minister Khalid al-Falih at the weekend repeating the market was more balanced and prices were stabilizing.
Last week, oil futures ended Friday’s session close to two-month lows as concerns over the global economic outlook combined with data showing that the U.S. oil rig count rose for the fifth time over the past six weeks weighed.
Despite Friday’s gains, London-traded Brent futures dropped $3.84, or 7.13%, on the week, its worst weekly performance since mid-January, amid growing anxiety over the economic impact of Britain's vote to leave the European Union.
The news sparked concerns that Europe will fall back into recession, putting more pressure on the global economy and undermining future oil demand prospects.
Oilfield services provider Baker Hughes said late Friday that the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. increased by 10 last week to 351, marking the fifth increase in six weeks.
The renewed gain in U.S. drilling activity fueled speculation that domestic production could be on the verge of rebounding in the weeks ahead, underlining worries over a supply glut.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, crude oil inventories declined by a less-than-expected 2.2 million barrels last week to 524.4 million, which the EIA considered to be “historically high levels for this time of year”.
In the week ahead, oil traders will be focusing on U.S. stockpile data on Tuesday and Wednesday for fresh supply-and-demand signals.
Meanwhile, investors will keep an eye out for monthly reports from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Counties and the International Energy Agency to gauge global supply and demand levels.
Market swing
crude oil signals
comex signals

Gold races to 28-month high, oil pressured as Brexit fears return

Gold rallied to its highest since 2014 on Wednesday and oil struggled to recover from deep losses, as renewed fears over the impact of Britain’s exit from the European Union pushed investors toward safe havens.

Risk aversion gripped markets - Asian stocks tumbled and sterling plumbed a 31-year low - amid worries global efforts to boost liquidity may not be enough to cushion the impact of Brexit. Copper moved away from a two-month high and Chinese commodities were sold off, led by agriculture and iron ore.

Concerns that financial and political instability in Italy could lead to even more chaos in Europe spooked investors further. [MKTS/GLOB]

“The market is beginning to focus on the wider euro zone risk,” said Ric Spooner, chief market analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney.

Underlining strong appetite for gold, seen as a safe-haven during economic uncertainties, open interest in Comex futures and holdings in the top gold-backed exchange-traded fund rose to multi-year highs.

Spot gold surged to $1,371.40 an ounce, the highest since March 2014, and was up 0.8 percent at $1,367 by 0646 GMT. Comex gold futures rose 0.7 percent to $1,368.80 as open interest topped 640,000 lots, the most since November 2010.
Holdings by SPDR Gold Trust rose to 31.6 million ounces, the biggest in three years.

“The general bullish sentiment for gold coupled with the post-Brexit uncertainty continues to underpin the metal and the complex as a whole,” wrote MKS Group trader James Gardiner.

The flight to gold picked up speed on reports three British commercial property funds worth about 10 billion pounds had suspended trading within 24 hours.

Oil futures struggled to rebound from big losses overnight as Brexit worries, combined with indications that output by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) hit a record high in June, dragged on prices.

Brent crude was steady at $47.97 a barrel after losing 4.3 percent on Tuesday. West Texas Intermediate was flat at $46.61, having slid 5 percent overnight. [O/R]

“You have the dollar strengthening, risk aversion rising because of the ongoing Brexit saga and then there are the actual supply and demand aspects to consider on top of all this,” Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst for forex.com, said in a note.

In metals, London copper dropped further below Monday’s two-month high to trade at $4,805 a tonne, also hurt by rising inventories. But nickel outperformed, gaining 1.4 percent to $9,840 on potential supply disruption from top ore exporter Philippines to No.1 market China.

In China, iron ore fell nearly 3 percent to 424.50 yuan a tonne, in another setback for the glut-hit market. Soymeal, soyoil and palm olein each fell around 4 percent.

Rubber slid 6 percent in Shanghai and 4 percent in Tokyo.
Market swing
Gold signals
comex signals

Chevron signals go-ahead with $36.8billion project

Chevron today confirmed its 50% owned affiliate, Tengizchevroil (TCO), will go-ahead with a $36.8billion aimed at increasing production in Kazakhstan to one million barrels of oil equivalent a day.

The Future Growth and Wellhead Pressure Management Project (FGP-WPMP) will add an additional 26,000 barrels of crude oil production per day for the Tengiz oil field.

FGP-WPMP’s $36.8billion price tag includes $27.1billion for facilities, $3.5billion for wells and $6.2billion for contingency and escalation.

Chevron’s chairman and chief executive officer John Watson said: “The Future Growth and Wellhead Pressure Management Project represents an excellent opportunity for the company.

“The project builds on a record of strong performance at Tengiz and will add value for Chevron and its stockholders.”

WPMP maximizes the value of existing TCO facilities by extending the production plateau and keeping existing plants producing at full capacity. FGP will use state-of-the-art sour gas injection technology, successfully developed and proven during TCO’s previous expansion in 2008, to enhance oil recovery. First oil is planned for 2022.

“This project builds on the successes of prior expansions at Tengiz and is ready to move forward,” added Jay Johnson, executive vice president, Upstream, Chevron Corporation.

“It has undergone extensive engineering and construction planning reviews and is well-timed to take advantage of lower costs of oil industry goods and services.”
Market swing
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comex signals

EUR/USD Forex Signal

EUR/USD Signal Update

Yesterday’s signals were not triggered as the bearish rejection of 1.1170 did not break in the next hour and when the price reached 1.1076 there was insufficiently bullish price action.

Today’s EUR/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%

Trades must be taken before 5pm London time today only.


Long Trades

Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1025 or 1.0900.Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.

Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trades

Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1076, 1.1170, or 1.1234.Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.

Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

EUR/USD Analysis

This pair had a reasonable downwards move yesterday after trying and failing to rise above 1.1170. The support at 1.1076 briefly halted the fall but ultimately was not able to stop it.There is no long-term trend and it is probable now that the pair will consolidate between 1.1026 and 1.1076.

Gold races to 28-month high, oil slides on renewed Brexit fears

Gold rallied to a more than two-year high and oil extended its losses on Wednesday, as renewed fears over the impact of Britain's exit from the European Union prompted investors to dump riskier assets in favor of the safer bullion.

Financial markets were weak across the board, with Asian stocks tumbling and sterling plumbing a 31-year low, on worries that global efforts to boost liquidity may not be enough to cushion the impact of Brexit. Concerns that financial and political instability in Italy could lead to even more chaos in Europe spooked investors further.

"The market is beginning to focus on the wider euro zone risk," said Ric Spooner, chief market analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney.

Underlining strong appetite for gold, seen as a safe-haven during economic uncertainties, open interest in Comex futures and holdings in the top gold-backed exchange-traded fund rose to multi-year highs.

Spot gold XAU= surged to $1,371.40 an ounce, the most since March 2014, and was up 1 percent at $1,369 by 0456 GMT. Comex gold futures GCcv1 rose 0.9 percent to $1,371.10 as open interest topped 640,000 lots, the highest since 2010.

"The general bullish sentiment for gold coupled with the post-Brexit uncertainty continues to underpin the metal and the complex as a whole," wrote MKS Group trader James Gardiner.

Holdings by SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) rose to 31.6 million ounces, the most in three years. HLDSPDRGT=XAU

The flight to gold picked up speed on reports three British commercial property funds worth about 10 billion pounds had suspended trading within 24 hours.

In oil markets, prices extended losses as Brexit worries together with indications that output by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) hit a record high in June dragged on sentiment.

Brent crude LCOc1 slipped 0.4 percent to $47.79 a barrel after losing 4.3 percent on Tuesday. West Texas Intermediate dropped CLc1 0.5 percent to $46.39, having slid 5 percent overnight.

"You have the dollar strengthening, risk aversion rising because of the ongoing Brexit saga and then there are the actual supply and demand aspects to consider on top of all this," Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst for forex, said in a note.

Among other commodities, Japan's rubber futures JRUc6 fell as much as 6 percent, while losses in base metals were limited with London copper CMCU3 steady below Monday's two-month high of $4,960 a ton.

"The worst case scenario for markets would be the forcing of another euro zone emergency where the referendum is lost leaving Italy without effective government and a looming banking crisis that can't be solved without compromise between the different national interest groups within Europe," said CMC's Spooner.
Comex signals
forex signals
crude oil signals

Consolidation In Libyan Oil – A Major Red Flag For Oil Markets?

A political breakthrough in Libya could potentially contribute to the return of some of the country’s disrupted oil production.

Libya has been torn apart by civil war, political gridlock, and the arrival of ISIS. Two rival governments have been at odds for several years, battling for control of the country and its oil production. But the standoff has resulted in a stalemate, and the North African OPEC member’s oil production has remained at a small fraction of its pre-war production levels.

But Libyan officials said over the weekend that two rival oil companies have decided to merge in what could be a major political breakthrough. The National Oil Company is based in Tripoli, under the control of the western government. The rival eastern government based in Tobruk tried to set up its own oil company and export oil on its own a few months ago. However, the international community took steps to block the move, and the failed attempt forced it to look to negotiate with the western government.

On July 2, the National Oil Company said in a press release that both sides have agreed to merge their operations. The head of the National Oil Company will lead the merged company with the chief of the eastern company set to become a board member. In addition, the newly merged company would relocate to Benghazi, a city in the eastern part of the country.

“We made a strategic choice to put our divisions behind us and to unify and integrate NOC,” the chairman of the National Oil Company Mustafa Sanalla said in the statement. "This agreement will send a very strong signal to the Libyan people and to the international community that the Presidency Council is able to deliver consensus and reconciliation."
Market Swing
Crude oil signals
comex signals

Gold prices up B50 to B22,200

The Gold Traders Association this morning announced the buying prices at 21,709.12 baht per baht-weight for gold ornaments and 22,100 baht per baht-weight for gold bar 

The selling prices were set at 22,700 baht per baht-weight for gold ornaments, and 22,200 baht per baht-weight for gold bar.  The prices rose 50 baht from yesterday’s close. 

The selling prices yesterday closed at 22,650 baht per baht-weight for gold ornaments, and 22,150 baht per baht-weight for gold bar. The prices changed once on Friday, up 50 baht from the previous day.  Bloomberg reported on Saturday gold posted the longest run of weekly gains in almost two years as Britain’s vote to quit the European Union fuelled speculation that central banks will boost economic stimulus. 

Havens such as gold and silver are in demand on prospects for weaker economies. Treasury yields fell to record lows along with sovereign rates from Spain to Japan as policy makers signalled their readiness to shore up economies. Governor Mark Carney said Thursday that the Bank of England could cut interest rates within months 

Gold and silver had the biggest first half gains in about four decades amid mounting speculation that interest rates in the US will remain low, which is a boon to precious metals because they don’t offer interest. Expectations for US rate increases have been wound back since the Brexit vote, while investors continue to pile into exchange-traded funds backed by gold. 

“Every hint at lower interest rates and at uncertainty is propelling gold and silver higher, whether that is rational or not,” Thorsten Proettel, a commodity analyst at Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg in Stuttgart, said by phone. “The governor of the Bank of England was the latest to play into this narrative.” 

Gold futures for August delivery advanced 1.4% to settle at copy,339 an ounce at 1.55pm on the Comex in New York, capping a fifth straight weekly rise. Prices rallied 25% in the first half, the biggest such gain since 1979. For spot gold, the rally in the first half was the largest since 1974. 

“What will drive the price of gold going forward is that by how much these central banks will ease their monetary policy, and that will serve as a catalyst for further movement,” said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Think Forex UK Ltd. Traders are pricing in a less-than 50% chance of higher US rates by the end of 2017, according to Fed funds futures. 

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Gold Posts Longest Run of Gains in Two Years on Stimulus Bets

Gold posted the longest run of weekly gains in almost two years and silver surged to the highest since 2014 as Britain’s vote to quit the European Union fueled speculation that central banks will boost economic stimulus.
Havens such as gold and silver are in demand on prospects for weaker economies. Treasury yields fell to record lows along with sovereign rates from Spain to Japan as policy makers signaled their readiness to shore up economies. Governor Mark Carney said Thursday that the Bank of England could cut interest rates within months.
Gold and silver had the biggest first half gains in about four decades amid mounting speculation that interest rates in the U.S. will remain low, which is a boon to precious metals because they don’t offer interest. Expectations for U.S. rate increases have been wound back since the Brexit vote, while investors continue to pile into exchange-traded funds backed by gold.
“Every hint at lower interest rates and at uncertainty is propelling gold and silver higher, whether that is rational or not,” Thorsten Proettel, a commodity analyst at Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg in Stuttgart, said by phone. “The governor of the Bank of England was the latest to play into this narrative.”
Policy Catalyst
Gold futures for August delivery advanced 1.4 percent to settle at $1,339 an ounce at 1:55 p.m. on the Comex in New York, capping a fifth straight weekly rise. Prices rallied 25 percent in the first half, the biggest such gain since 1979. For spot gold, the rally in the first half was the largest since 1974.
Silver futures for September delivery climbed 5.2 percent to $19.588 an ounce. In electronic trading after the market closed, the metal touched $19.745, the highest since August 2014.
“What will drive the price of gold going forward is that by how much these central banks will ease their monetary policy, and that will serve as a catalyst for further movement,” said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Think Forex U.K. Ltd.
Traders are pricing in a less-than 50 percent chance of higher U.S. rates by the end of 2017, according to Fed funds futures.
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Gold Posts Longest Run of Gains in Two Years on Stimulus Bets

Gold posted the longest run of weekly gains in almost two years and silver surged to the highest since 2014 as Britain’s vote to quit the European Union fueled speculation that central banks will boost economic stimulus.
Havens such as gold and silver are in demand on prospects for weaker economies. Treasury yields fell to record lows along with sovereign rates from Spain to Japan as policy makers signaled their readiness to shore up economies. Governor Mark Carney said Thursday that the Bank of England could cut interest rates within months.
Gold and silver had the biggest first half gains in about four decades amid mounting speculation that interest rates in the U.S. will remain low, which is a boon to precious metals because they don’t offer interest. Expectations for U.S. rate increases have been wound back since the Brexit vote, while investors continue to pile into exchange-traded funds backed by gold.
“Every hint at lower interest rates and at uncertainty is propelling gold and silver higher, whether that is rational or not,” Thorsten Proettel, a commodity analyst at Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg in Stuttgart, said by phone. “The governor of the Bank of England was the latest to play into this narrative.”
Policy Catalyst
Gold futures for August delivery advanced 1.4 percent to settle at $1,339 an ounce at 1:55 p.m. on the Comex in New York, capping a fifth straight weekly rise. Prices rallied 25 percent in the first half, the biggest such gain since 1979. For spot gold, the rally in the first half was the largest since 1974.
Silver futures for September delivery climbed 5.2 percent to $19.588 an ounce. In electronic trading after the market closed, the metal touched $19.745, the highest since August 2014.
“What will drive the price of gold going forward is that by how much these central banks will ease their monetary policy, and that will serve as a catalyst for further movement,” said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Think Forex U.K. Ltd.
Traders are pricing in a less-than 50 percent chance of higher U.S. rates by the end of 2017, according to Fed funds futures.
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