Chevron signals go-ahead with $36.8billion project

Chevron today confirmed its 50% owned affiliate, Tengizchevroil (TCO), will go-ahead with a $36.8billion aimed at increasing production in Kazakhstan to one million barrels of oil equivalent a day.

The Future Growth and Wellhead Pressure Management Project (FGP-WPMP) will add an additional 26,000 barrels of crude oil production per day for the Tengiz oil field.

FGP-WPMP’s $36.8billion price tag includes $27.1billion for facilities, $3.5billion for wells and $6.2billion for contingency and escalation.

Chevron’s chairman and chief executive officer John Watson said: “The Future Growth and Wellhead Pressure Management Project represents an excellent opportunity for the company.

“The project builds on a record of strong performance at Tengiz and will add value for Chevron and its stockholders.”

WPMP maximizes the value of existing TCO facilities by extending the production plateau and keeping existing plants producing at full capacity. FGP will use state-of-the-art sour gas injection technology, successfully developed and proven during TCO’s previous expansion in 2008, to enhance oil recovery. First oil is planned for 2022.

“This project builds on the successes of prior expansions at Tengiz and is ready to move forward,” added Jay Johnson, executive vice president, Upstream, Chevron Corporation.

“It has undergone extensive engineering and construction planning reviews and is well-timed to take advantage of lower costs of oil industry goods and services.”
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EUR/USD Forex Signal

EUR/USD Signal Update

Yesterday’s signals were not triggered as the bearish rejection of 1.1170 did not break in the next hour and when the price reached 1.1076 there was insufficiently bullish price action.

Today’s EUR/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%

Trades must be taken before 5pm London time today only.


Long Trades

Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1025 or 1.0900.Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.

Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trades

Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1076, 1.1170, or 1.1234.Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.

Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

EUR/USD Analysis

This pair had a reasonable downwards move yesterday after trying and failing to rise above 1.1170. The support at 1.1076 briefly halted the fall but ultimately was not able to stop it.There is no long-term trend and it is probable now that the pair will consolidate between 1.1026 and 1.1076.

Gold races to 28-month high, oil slides on renewed Brexit fears

Gold rallied to a more than two-year high and oil extended its losses on Wednesday, as renewed fears over the impact of Britain's exit from the European Union prompted investors to dump riskier assets in favor of the safer bullion.

Financial markets were weak across the board, with Asian stocks tumbling and sterling plumbing a 31-year low, on worries that global efforts to boost liquidity may not be enough to cushion the impact of Brexit. Concerns that financial and political instability in Italy could lead to even more chaos in Europe spooked investors further.

"The market is beginning to focus on the wider euro zone risk," said Ric Spooner, chief market analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney.

Underlining strong appetite for gold, seen as a safe-haven during economic uncertainties, open interest in Comex futures and holdings in the top gold-backed exchange-traded fund rose to multi-year highs.

Spot gold XAU= surged to $1,371.40 an ounce, the most since March 2014, and was up 1 percent at $1,369 by 0456 GMT. Comex gold futures GCcv1 rose 0.9 percent to $1,371.10 as open interest topped 640,000 lots, the highest since 2010.

"The general bullish sentiment for gold coupled with the post-Brexit uncertainty continues to underpin the metal and the complex as a whole," wrote MKS Group trader James Gardiner.

Holdings by SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) rose to 31.6 million ounces, the most in three years. HLDSPDRGT=XAU

The flight to gold picked up speed on reports three British commercial property funds worth about 10 billion pounds had suspended trading within 24 hours.

In oil markets, prices extended losses as Brexit worries together with indications that output by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) hit a record high in June dragged on sentiment.

Brent crude LCOc1 slipped 0.4 percent to $47.79 a barrel after losing 4.3 percent on Tuesday. West Texas Intermediate dropped CLc1 0.5 percent to $46.39, having slid 5 percent overnight.

"You have the dollar strengthening, risk aversion rising because of the ongoing Brexit saga and then there are the actual supply and demand aspects to consider on top of all this," Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst for forex, said in a note.

Among other commodities, Japan's rubber futures JRUc6 fell as much as 6 percent, while losses in base metals were limited with London copper CMCU3 steady below Monday's two-month high of $4,960 a ton.

"The worst case scenario for markets would be the forcing of another euro zone emergency where the referendum is lost leaving Italy without effective government and a looming banking crisis that can't be solved without compromise between the different national interest groups within Europe," said CMC's Spooner.
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Consolidation In Libyan Oil – A Major Red Flag For Oil Markets?

A political breakthrough in Libya could potentially contribute to the return of some of the country’s disrupted oil production.

Libya has been torn apart by civil war, political gridlock, and the arrival of ISIS. Two rival governments have been at odds for several years, battling for control of the country and its oil production. But the standoff has resulted in a stalemate, and the North African OPEC member’s oil production has remained at a small fraction of its pre-war production levels.

But Libyan officials said over the weekend that two rival oil companies have decided to merge in what could be a major political breakthrough. The National Oil Company is based in Tripoli, under the control of the western government. The rival eastern government based in Tobruk tried to set up its own oil company and export oil on its own a few months ago. However, the international community took steps to block the move, and the failed attempt forced it to look to negotiate with the western government.

On July 2, the National Oil Company said in a press release that both sides have agreed to merge their operations. The head of the National Oil Company will lead the merged company with the chief of the eastern company set to become a board member. In addition, the newly merged company would relocate to Benghazi, a city in the eastern part of the country.

“We made a strategic choice to put our divisions behind us and to unify and integrate NOC,” the chairman of the National Oil Company Mustafa Sanalla said in the statement. "This agreement will send a very strong signal to the Libyan people and to the international community that the Presidency Council is able to deliver consensus and reconciliation."
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Gold prices up B50 to B22,200

The Gold Traders Association this morning announced the buying prices at 21,709.12 baht per baht-weight for gold ornaments and 22,100 baht per baht-weight for gold bar 

The selling prices were set at 22,700 baht per baht-weight for gold ornaments, and 22,200 baht per baht-weight for gold bar.  The prices rose 50 baht from yesterday’s close. 

The selling prices yesterday closed at 22,650 baht per baht-weight for gold ornaments, and 22,150 baht per baht-weight for gold bar. The prices changed once on Friday, up 50 baht from the previous day.  Bloomberg reported on Saturday gold posted the longest run of weekly gains in almost two years as Britain’s vote to quit the European Union fuelled speculation that central banks will boost economic stimulus. 

Havens such as gold and silver are in demand on prospects for weaker economies. Treasury yields fell to record lows along with sovereign rates from Spain to Japan as policy makers signalled their readiness to shore up economies. Governor Mark Carney said Thursday that the Bank of England could cut interest rates within months 

Gold and silver had the biggest first half gains in about four decades amid mounting speculation that interest rates in the US will remain low, which is a boon to precious metals because they don’t offer interest. Expectations for US rate increases have been wound back since the Brexit vote, while investors continue to pile into exchange-traded funds backed by gold. 

“Every hint at lower interest rates and at uncertainty is propelling gold and silver higher, whether that is rational or not,” Thorsten Proettel, a commodity analyst at Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg in Stuttgart, said by phone. “The governor of the Bank of England was the latest to play into this narrative.” 

Gold futures for August delivery advanced 1.4% to settle at copy,339 an ounce at 1.55pm on the Comex in New York, capping a fifth straight weekly rise. Prices rallied 25% in the first half, the biggest such gain since 1979. For spot gold, the rally in the first half was the largest since 1974. 

“What will drive the price of gold going forward is that by how much these central banks will ease their monetary policy, and that will serve as a catalyst for further movement,” said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Think Forex UK Ltd. Traders are pricing in a less-than 50% chance of higher US rates by the end of 2017, according to Fed funds futures. 

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Gold Posts Longest Run of Gains in Two Years on Stimulus Bets

Gold posted the longest run of weekly gains in almost two years and silver surged to the highest since 2014 as Britain’s vote to quit the European Union fueled speculation that central banks will boost economic stimulus.
Havens such as gold and silver are in demand on prospects for weaker economies. Treasury yields fell to record lows along with sovereign rates from Spain to Japan as policy makers signaled their readiness to shore up economies. Governor Mark Carney said Thursday that the Bank of England could cut interest rates within months.
Gold and silver had the biggest first half gains in about four decades amid mounting speculation that interest rates in the U.S. will remain low, which is a boon to precious metals because they don’t offer interest. Expectations for U.S. rate increases have been wound back since the Brexit vote, while investors continue to pile into exchange-traded funds backed by gold.
“Every hint at lower interest rates and at uncertainty is propelling gold and silver higher, whether that is rational or not,” Thorsten Proettel, a commodity analyst at Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg in Stuttgart, said by phone. “The governor of the Bank of England was the latest to play into this narrative.”
Policy Catalyst
Gold futures for August delivery advanced 1.4 percent to settle at $1,339 an ounce at 1:55 p.m. on the Comex in New York, capping a fifth straight weekly rise. Prices rallied 25 percent in the first half, the biggest such gain since 1979. For spot gold, the rally in the first half was the largest since 1974.
Silver futures for September delivery climbed 5.2 percent to $19.588 an ounce. In electronic trading after the market closed, the metal touched $19.745, the highest since August 2014.
“What will drive the price of gold going forward is that by how much these central banks will ease their monetary policy, and that will serve as a catalyst for further movement,” said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Think Forex U.K. Ltd.
Traders are pricing in a less-than 50 percent chance of higher U.S. rates by the end of 2017, according to Fed funds futures.
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Gold Posts Longest Run of Gains in Two Years on Stimulus Bets

Gold posted the longest run of weekly gains in almost two years and silver surged to the highest since 2014 as Britain’s vote to quit the European Union fueled speculation that central banks will boost economic stimulus.
Havens such as gold and silver are in demand on prospects for weaker economies. Treasury yields fell to record lows along with sovereign rates from Spain to Japan as policy makers signaled their readiness to shore up economies. Governor Mark Carney said Thursday that the Bank of England could cut interest rates within months.
Gold and silver had the biggest first half gains in about four decades amid mounting speculation that interest rates in the U.S. will remain low, which is a boon to precious metals because they don’t offer interest. Expectations for U.S. rate increases have been wound back since the Brexit vote, while investors continue to pile into exchange-traded funds backed by gold.
“Every hint at lower interest rates and at uncertainty is propelling gold and silver higher, whether that is rational or not,” Thorsten Proettel, a commodity analyst at Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg in Stuttgart, said by phone. “The governor of the Bank of England was the latest to play into this narrative.”
Policy Catalyst
Gold futures for August delivery advanced 1.4 percent to settle at $1,339 an ounce at 1:55 p.m. on the Comex in New York, capping a fifth straight weekly rise. Prices rallied 25 percent in the first half, the biggest such gain since 1979. For spot gold, the rally in the first half was the largest since 1974.
Silver futures for September delivery climbed 5.2 percent to $19.588 an ounce. In electronic trading after the market closed, the metal touched $19.745, the highest since August 2014.
“What will drive the price of gold going forward is that by how much these central banks will ease their monetary policy, and that will serve as a catalyst for further movement,” said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Think Forex U.K. Ltd.
Traders are pricing in a less-than 50 percent chance of higher U.S. rates by the end of 2017, according to Fed funds futures.
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